Secure the Border

The current crisis in immigration is leading many, especially here in Arizona where we are entering the primary season, to renew calls to “secure the border.” This is especially apparent among the Republican contenders where each candidate is trying to go yet further to the right with calls for border securing.

What is completely missing is any discussion of what this actually means. How “secure” do we want the border to be? Impervious? Slightly leaky? Against whom do we want to secure it? All non-Americans? Everyone through border crossings?

Which borders are we talking about? Our border with Canada is almost twice as long as our border with Mexico. Assuming we’re just talking about Mexico, presumably we don’t need to worry about those friendly, productive Canadians as just as white [actually probably more white] than we are, even if some of them do speak French), the Mexican border is 1,993 miles long. More than one candidate suggests that the border be secured by the Army.

Thinking too hard about this, if we were to decide we need to station troops at 500 foot intervals, we’d be looking at a force of more than 35,000 men. Troops that would need to be housed, fed, trained, along with a border infrastructure that might include a number of features. Here we could call on our old friends in the German Democratic Republic (aka East Germany) for advice on the construction of a Wall. In its prime, the Wall included  a 300-foot No-Man’s-Land, an additional inner wall, soldiers patrolling with dogs, a raked ground that showed footprints, anti-vehicle trenches, electric fences, massive light systems, watchtowers, bunkers, and minefields. So, 35,000 men, walls, mine fields, and almost 2,000 miles of good old East German know-how just might do the job. They’d be particularly effective against the current onslaught of Central American children.

While Erik Honnecker, the prime mover in East Germany for the construction of the original Wall, is dead, surely many of his commanders are still alive and could offer assistance of both a physical and ideological nature.

Yes, I know that takes the problem to the absurd (although it wasn’t absurd to the East German ideologues who created it, nor to those who build the Great Wall of China against the Mongol hordes), but the current posturing around the issue and the failure of America to address this as a policy and, increasingly, humanitarian issue, is distressing. We are experiencing to an increasing degree the kind of diaspora in our own backyard from the southern American states that is visible in Syria and Iraq .

We need to find politicians that can address the problem in its complexity, not simple raise calls to ‘secure the border’ to mobilize a political base or increase our jingoist prejudices. I fear we will wait a long while for this to happen, and that what incurs in the interim might only deepen the divide.

Late July Update

As the Republican Campaign for Governor heats up, as suspected, the top two Republication candidates, Christine Jones and Doug Ducey, continue to try to outdo each other in their run to the right on border security. Jones claims she going to “deploy 1,200 troops to the border, use technology to monitor who’s coming and going, finish the fence, and send Obama the bill”. So where are the troops coming from? Arizona has troops? Even if the National Guard were used, the state would foot the bill unless the Federal Government agreed to help.

Even Jones admits her plan will cost the state $270 million. Personally I’d triple that: I estimate building a secure, East Berlin like Wall would cost at least $500 million using the length of the border and per mile prices on a building project like two lanes of interstate for the length of the border. And 1,700 troops is about 1/3 of what would be needed, and that the deployment of 1,200 troops during Operation Phalanx (2010-2011) cost $11o million according to a blog posting by Stephen Lemons in the Phoenix New Times. So total on-going costs in the range of $400 million a year.

Ducey chides her for this, but has no counter plan, other than “using every resource at my commend”, including “fencing, satellites, guardsmen, more police and more prosecutors.” But without indication of what the cost would be or how he would pay for it. All this, while lowering taxes, according to his Web site, “with a goal of pushing income tax rates as close to zero as possible.”

It would be amusing if it weren’t so cynical and ultimately tragic for the state if either gets elected. But don’t count it: it’s likely that one of them will be the Republican candidate. And in Arizona, that’s more than half the battle.

 

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The Big Boys March On

George Vecsey has a very interesting post in today’s New York Times about the difficulty of non-premier teams to make it to the finals / final four in the World Cup.

The “Latin America” scenario of my last post remains in effect. Of course the four teams that I picked there could also go in a European direction, but I found it interesting that neither of the two early contender teams — Costa Rica or Belgium — could rise to the challenge and make it into the quarter finals.

Columbia met an energized and rather violent defensive team in Brazil — 50’ish fouls by Brazil in the course of the game suggest a mass mugging rather than a football match. As unfortunate as the Neymar injury is, the pace and physicality of the Brazilian team’s play almost demanded a response in kind. We shall see if that has any effect on the play of Brazil in its match with Germany, or the absence of Neymar and Silva, assuming that today’s desperate bid by Brazil to have Silva’s yellow card overturned is not successful.

As for Argentina, it channeled its inner Italy to play Belgium to a 1 – 0 win. The Belgian had opportunities, Messi had a great chance blocked the end of the game, but it was basically Argentina playing very strong defense after the initial goal, and otherwise staying at home. Ditto Germany vs. France. The Germans played a little more offense, but at the end of the day defense was the name of the game.

As it almost always is in the crucial games in football. Simply look at the differences in scoring between the divisional matches and the knock-out round. There were 4 goals scored in 4 games last weekend, and one round of penalty kicks. In the first round (admittedly twice as many games), we saw 16 goals scored. Backing up into the divisional rounds, we saw the greatest number of goals ever scored in that round.

So while many of us may have expected to see this offensive trend continue, it did not because at its heart football is a game where a good defense will almost always find it possible to keep a great offensive team in check. The Netherlands/Costa Rica game is a good example. The Dutch were far the superior team, had many more chances in full-time, and yet came up empty, in large part due to off sides traps (10 against, I believe), and very good goal keeping. Penalty kicks is a brutal way to lose a game, but so it goes. FIFA has never been able to find another suitable alternative.

I will stay with my Germany / Netherlands final because I believe they are the better teams at this point in the tournament, but would not be surprised at all to be wrong. Yet again.

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World Cup Scenarios

With eight teams left to play off, here are my two scenarios:

European Final

Belgium over Argentina
Netherlands over Costa Rica

Columbia over Brazil
Germany over France

Germany over Columbia
Netherlands over Belgium

South American Final

Argentina over Belgium
Netherlands over Costa Rica

Brazil over Columbia
Germany over France

Brazil over Germany
Argentina over Netherlands

Of course an alternate of these is possible, but I still think that the European Final is the stronger possibility, with a Germany – Argentina final the third-best option. I don’t see Brazil getting to the finals unless they can play with complete energy and develop a defense that hasn’t appeared to date. And it would be better for them to lose before the finals than in the finals, from a nation’s psyche point of view.

I don’t think I can pick a winner until we get to that point, but for my money, Germany and Netherlands are the two best teams I’ve seen so far. And if it comes to Germany/Netherlands, with van Persie and Robben, the Dutch have a good change to finally get their first World Cup.

 

 

 

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Tim Howard, God Among Men, and US Soccer

The US – Belgium game was one to remember for a very long time.

Tim Howard, US Goalie, was nothing short of spectacular, stopping 16 shots on goal in the first 90 minutes, and keeping the US far enough in the game to have one last chance at the end for a tie, and a move onto penalty kicks.

Without Howard’s remarkable effort, Belgium, clearly the better team on both offense and defense, would have scored, at least 2 goals I think, and the game would have been over at full time. Of course it could have been much worse, but Howard stopped everything that came at time for those 90 minutes.

The US played with determination, and a lesser team would have folded after the 2 Belgian goals in overtime, but they came back, back to score and bring in the possibility of a tying goal in the last 30 seconds.

But we must remember that as brilliantly as Howard played, 16 saves shows exactly how far the US is from the major soccer teams: a ways. We have the determination and attitude to do great things — how good would a final four, say, in Russia in four years be? — but need additional attention to details and superior playing chances to take the US game to the next level. Here Klinsmann’s leadership will account for much, and his insistence on wanting players on the US team that play at the highest level — and now that means the Premier League, Bundesliga, Seria A, for example — is in my mind the best way to achieve that in the shortest period of time.

At some point it may become necessary for the MLS to abandon “American Exceptionalism”, and play its leagues, as everywhere else in the world, starting in the fall and ending in the spring. That would align the US game with the game everywhere else. In time the MLS may become as strong as some of the superior European teams, but that day is a ways off, and we need as many US players playing at their best in the best of circumstances.

Then we can really say “I believe that we will win” because it will be in line with reality.

 

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37 Seconds

In a recent post, I asked rhetorically whether anyone thought the US would make it out of the Group of Death. Thankfully, mercifully, I was wrong, we did survive.

But if you think too hard about it, as is my wont, the whole thing was decided in the first 37 seconds when Dempsey scored an early US goal on a very bad mistake by the Ghanan defense. Thereafter, Ghana clearly played the better game, better chances, more energy, more creativity, and a very good goal. The US defense was adequate, goalie Tim Howard was brilliant in this game and every other. Were it not for a brilliantly executed set play to bring the score to 2-1, and that early goal at 37 seconds, the game would have ended a 1-1 tie. That would have unsatisfying, but fair.

Another shout out to Germany who helped us by beating Portugal 4-0 for an almost insurmountable goal differential, and again to Howard who helped keep the German defeat with bounds at 1-0.

As to the late goal for a tie against Portugal, well, that’s why Renaldo is one of best players around. Like Messi and Robben, he defines games, and makes the plays that win games, and while this may not have been for a win, it did keep Portugal in the running.

So, in three games, we won one (37 seconds in), tied one (last 30 seconds), and lost one (only one goal against), and in retrospect, we are going because of the results of Day 1: 37 seconds for us, 4-0 for Germany. We are playing well defensively, and Howard has been one of the best in the tournament, but can we beat Belgium? And if Belgium, then, probably Argentina?

I doubt it, but would be happy to be wrong yet again. We’ll see: go USA.

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Interrogation

Who do you think you are?
What in the world are you doing?
How did you ever even think that?
Why do you think you’re so special?

Why am I standing here listening to you?
Who else should I care about?
What was I thinking?
How could I have possibly been so dumb?

How could we have tolerated that for so long?
Why didn’t we do something about it long ago?
Who shall we have to continue to tolerate?
What should we do to extirpate our shame?

What can they say that would matter at all?
How can they continue to be permitted?
Why should they matter at all?
Who am I that I should not care about them?

Who am I that I should not care about them?

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An Accident of Birth

Thinking too hard yet again, to the stalled immigration debate, I would add the following thought: we are Americans by an accident of birth. That’s it: the sum total of why I am an American. I was born here. My parents were born here. Neither they nor I had any control over that fact, and it was certainly not the result of achievement or choice.

The Us/Them, Native/Alien debate often comes with the presumption that those who are here by an accident of birth should be innately more privileged than those who are not. Logically, we have not “earned” our place, there is no quality that we accidentals posses that entitles us innately, as human beings, to be preferable to those to failed to pass the same accidental test.

At the end of the day, the immigration “debate” is not so much a debate as a fight for who gets to name and qualify the Other, in its essence, then, a deeply racist enterprise as one race of accidentals gets positioned against another. If we insist on such distinctions, should they not at least be earned, in some fashion, perhaps along the lines of Kennedy’s “ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country” invocation of service?

Under this model, those who have immigrated here and obtained citizenship pass a higher threshold that we mere accidentals. Seen in that light, service to country is passed by many: the military, firemen, policemen, coast guard, postal workers, teachers, public librarians, the list can go on for a while.

Perhaps a model of requiring such service as a condition of citizenship (or voting) would give greater impact and meaning to being a citizen of this country. Imagine all of those “illegal” immigrants now becoming legal through their service to this country. Many are probably doing so in some capacity already, and with greater effect than many accidentals.

And if we take this a step further, we could ask about establishing this as a general principle: you choose where you want to live on the basis of the qualities of the place and the culture (both economic and social) that it projects as a nation. If I felt “closer” economically and culturally to Canada or Germany or (depending) Saudi Arabia or (depending) Israel, why should I not be able to take up residence and service there? Would I not then no longer be accidental, but now actually a citizen “with a purpose”?

This would be the utopia of “one world, many cultures”, envisioned by the early Socialists who argued against the distraction of the nation state — whether secular or religious — in moving towards the goal of a universal brotherhood not based on statist, racial, or religious strictures. If you see this as a goal, the debate must recognize the fact of the accidental and strive to replace it with more humanistic, logical goals.

 

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Aphorisms

A spoonful of sugar may help the medicine go down, but what keeps it there?

In geological time, mankind is but the grit under God’s fingernails. Is it a wonder that we love the grit less than He?

A car may drive itself without our intervention, but how does it know where to go? True singularity would stipulate that either the car knows where we want to go, or, more singular yet, that we want to go where it wants to take us.

Singing the body electric does not make it so. We generate our own electricity, but have no control over it. Electric impulses in the heart work — sinus rhythm — or don’t — atrial fibrillation. We’re a machine that runs in spite of ourselves.

Soccer holds up a mirror to our lives, so much failure, so little scoring, moments of brilliance coupled with abject despair, and yet, we’ll take a 1 to nil for our side any day.

That said, does anyone really believe the US has a chance to make to the knockout round playing against Germany, Portugal, and Ghana?

 

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Storage

Of late I have been spending my work (and outside of work) time thinking about storage, specifically how to keep all of my Center’s digital stuff safe, secure, resilient, and available to us when and where we need it. Surely the stultifying stuff born to cure the native insomniac in all of us, right?

Maybe. It turns out to present an interesting set of problems, not just to the data and IT professionals, but also all of us who have an increasing bigger pile of digital stuff that we’d not like to lose.

What matters most, as it turns out, is the size of the pile. For most of us individuals, unless we have extensive digital image/music collections, we can probably keep most of our digital stuff on thumb drives, and carry around multiple copies in our pockets. Or we could put it up “in the cloud” using any one of a variety of services — Amazon, Google, Dropbox, Flickr to mention but a few. I believe that Flickr these days offers as much as 1 terabyte of storage for nothing or next to nothing.

But what if you have a big pile, and getting bigger. Big as in 20 TB which is not big by industrial standards, but big enough for the purposes of this exercise, and what my Center’s looking at. Let’s say that they are big image files (some upwards of 100GB), and we have more than a half a million of them. So I have them on disk and want to be sure that if some bad thing happens to that disk (hardware failure, power outage, whatever), that I can get that content back. Some of the questions are: where do I put it? How long does it take me to put it there? How much can I afford to lose if I do have a failure? How long will it take me to get it back? And how do I do this when my organization has tech savvy users, but no real technologists, and no technical infrastructure that they own?

Some of those questions may not matter quite so much to individuals — hey, if it takes me a day or two to get back Aunt Hilda’s wicked hula pics from Hawaii, maybe I don’t care so much — as to businesses where failure to recover quickly could prove costly or fatal. If I have a copy from yesterday either on a thumb drive or on another system that’s still OK, recovery means copying back data from that drive or storage to the “good” system, and the time to recover is the time it takes me to make the copy, and how much I’ve lost (if anything) depends on when I last made the copy and what has changed since then.

Hardware to hardware (thumb drive to your new hard drive) is relative quick, but still do try copying 100GB of data and do the timing. Hardware to hardware over a network (mounted network drive to new local storage) is constrained by bandwidth. For the average user who has a 50Mbps network (about as fast as you can get from your ISP), even if all if it was available to you (and it’s not), it would take about 4 hours to restore 100GB of data. And that 20TB number I mentioned above? More than a month, running 24/7.

All of us who have done large back-ups know that you probably can’t run 24/7 for even a week unless you’re in a professionally managed data center and they know that they shouldn’t shut you down/reboot you/patch you/do anything that would adversely affect your restore. And what’s going on during that restore with the rest of your data/business, hmm? Even with the very fast network that I have available (more than 240Mbps), a complete restore, given the effective rate would be a week and change.

So what are some of the ways to reduce risk/address these issues?

  1. Triage — determine what data is absolutely mission critical and develop a plan to back it up/sync it/have it available on multiple, physically redundant sites over a network that you control or have managed for you so that you can recover by pointing your system at the other storage sites. The best solutions in this area use a combination of hardware/software to accomplish this. They are not cheap, and require dedicated resources to manage.
  2. Hybrid (i.e., mix of hardware and cloud) storage solutions — after having done 1 (in some fashion), consider solutions that manage within the scope of a physical piece of hardware data on local disk and in “the cloud”. In these solutions, heavily used local data is kept locally, either in memory or on disk, while the less used data is relegated to cloud storage, and only fetched when needed. These are becoming less expensive solutions, but still require management of hardware, the network, and a thought towards using additional local systems for back-up
  3. Pure Cloud — Pure Cloud solutions where backup/sync storage is located with a cloud provider is the least expensive, but also, as we have shown, the slowest, even on a very fast network. There are some good solutions in this space, but the need to be combined with the triage approach mentioned above.

At the end of the process, we determined that the mission-critical data, about 300GB in our case, could be kept redundantly locally, and sync’ed to our cloud back-up solution. In a disaster, this 300GB could be recovered to local storage in a few hours, meeting the Center’s requirements. The rest of the data would also be local, and recovery could occur over time as it was largely “archival” data that would not change much (if at all), and where recovery could be done selectively, at a much faster pace for urgently needed data, and then in a more leisurely fashion for the rest. So the Pure Cloud play, with some twiddles, looks like it’s going to be the best and most cost-effective for us in the near term (next year).

Right now I think the hybrid solutions hold the most promise, but they still require technical management, not something that my Center had readily available and my University is currently read to provide. And if you’re still awake at this point, good for you. Hope you found it interesting, and just consider what this problem looks like at a larger scale, 100’s of TB or even petabytes (1,000 TB) or zettabytes (1,000 PB). At this point, I think I’d want to be in the storage hardware business rather than trying to figure it all out, that would be the problem that Amazon, Google, and their ilk will be needing to solve.

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Keeping Our State Legislators Busy, An Open Letter to Tim Steller, Arizona Star Columnist

Earlier today I sent the following letter to Tim Steller, a columnist for the Arizona Star, one of more thoughtful journalists in the state, in the hope that he would find it of interest:

Dear Tim:

So the Arizona State legislature finished up their business a couple of weeks ago, with a flurry of bills. Governor Brewer once again proved to be a responsible adult and vetoed the more egregious of them, mostly commenting that the State already had provisions to prevent/protect (depending) its citizens from whatever was being proposed, including two controversial gun bills, one allowing open carry of guns into public buildings and events, and another that would have made local officials personally liable for passing gun statutes that are more restrictive than the state’s. She also vetoed a bill that would have required that President Obama and other presidential candidates to offer proof of their US citizenship before their names could appear on the ballot.

So, clearly, our legislators in Phoenix need to find something else to keep them busy, other than attempting to pass bills extending the presence of guns, restricting the reproductive choices of women, reducing state expenditures on education, and/or transferring state funds out of public education, diverting it to private choices at a rate higher than public expenditures.

I’d propose that we put the Arizona State Motto — Ditat Deus (“God enriches”) — on the chopping block for changing. First off, it’s in an elitist — and dead — language, Latin. Secondly, it flat out states that God is responsible for increasing the riches of the state. Separation of church and state aside, while we may believe in, rely on, put our faith in God, thirdly we God-fearing, free-living, independent Arizonans would have to reject the notion that enrichment comes from anywhere other than the sweat off our hard-working backs. As Tina Turner might have said, “What does God have to do with it, do with it…”

Yes, we need a new motto that accurately reflects that reality of the Arizonan political landscape of today. Now, my first thought after living here a brief period was “Arizona — The Mississippi of the Southwest, but with greater firepower”. Now this motto hits on all cylinders: it points out that Arizona nears dead-last in the US with Mississippi on a number of social fronts — children living in poverty, unemployment rate, gun deaths per 100,000 (where Mississippi beats us out), even cost of living (Biloxi is more expensive than Phoenix) — but it is of course far too long to fit on any State Seal, and it would appear that Mississippi has even greater (or more accurate) firepower than Arizona.

So while I encourage others to offer their own suggestion, I offer one, in three forms:

Keeping with the Latin: Arizona: Stulti Cum Tormenta
Or German (recognizing the strong German settler heritage): Arizona: Bewaffnete Dummköpfe
Or English: Arizona: Idiots With Guns

I’d offer Spanish as well, but given the general antipathy to the Latino population here among those who govern us, that would probably be a non-starter, and is left to the reader to translate as an exercise.

I hope that you will join me in suggesting this as a future agenda item to Governor Brewer and Andy Biggs, President of the Arizona State Senate.

Sincerely,

Jim Coleman

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