Jurassic World

Posted on August 2, 2015 by jimcoleman3rd

By now, you’ve all seen Jurassic World, right? Biggest box office opening world-wide in history, second biggest in the US. So I guess you’d have to have seen it.

And maybe you’ve read some of the more or less mixed reviews. One reviewer complained about the heroine running around the whole time in heels. How are you going to escape a velocirapor while in heels? Well, she did. There were other complaints about a weak script and less than stellar acting. The critics forget — not all, but many — that no one goes to a Jurassic Park movie because they are interested in the cast or the plot. They go — as did I — to see the dinosaurs.

In Jurassic Park I, this exchange pretty much summed up the plot for all of them: “God creates dinosaurs. God destroys dinosaurs. God creates man. Man destroys God. Man creates dinosaurs… ” “Dinosaurs eat man. Women inherits the earth”.

What I found of interest in this version were 1) the integration of recent American capitalism into the fabric of the park, and 2) the utter failure to portray how such a park might actually operate, especially in the face of the events depicted.

As to 1), the entire enterprise of the park is founded on retaining interest of the public in the next “shiny thing” and on naming rights. The main bad-boy dinosaur, Indominus rex, in Jurassic World was created to be both that next shiny thing as well as a “named event” sponsored by Verizon (as I recall). So the fact that Claire, the heroine, is dressed in business attire and heels would be exactly what a corporate sponsor would expect to meet to bring the deal to fruition. So, completely realistic in that regard. As was the theming of the part itself and presences of businesses like Jamba Juice and Starbucks. Whether this was meant as a subtle critique of American penchant to brand and monitize everything or was simple seen as a “realistic” view of what such a theme park would look like, I leave to the reader to ponder.

As to 2), the whole proposition (Jurassic World as presented here) is pretty much preposterous. Consider: the park is located on an island 120 miles off the coast of Costa Rica. At the time of the movie, there are more than 20,000 visitors to the park. Currently the largest cruse liners hold about 4,000 people, and travel about 20 miles an hour. Six would require a six hour voyage one-way to get there, and an equal amount of time to return to the mainland, and this only if the boats left from Costa Rica itself. Really?

Although one assumes there are hotels on the island, none are described or depicted. When all hell breaks loose with the animals, no one is told to go to the safety of their rooms, and everyone appears to be meandering amidst the chaos.

Worst of all, the staff is completely incapable of dealing with an emergency situation of any sort. See the youngster manning the gyrosphere ride when the park begins to break down. It is likewise incomprehensible that the staff manning the command center would leave in the midst of the worst of it, just as it is incomprehensible that security commandos could take over operation on a moment’s notice.

There is more that buggers the imagination, but you get the drift. The only constant factor is the Tyrannosaurus Rex ex machina that provides the concluding scene in this edition as in edition 1.

What this led me to wish for was a movie that described these events within the context of how such businesses actually meet the unique challenges that running a larger theme park presents. I know, I know, disaster movies set on airplanes or cruise liners are a genre in itself, but still one longs for a bit more realism…

For example, after a system upgrade to a non-email system all of a corporation’s email is down, old email can’t be retrieve, new email can’t be sent, corporate policy is not allow the use of non-corporate email systems from behind the firewall, business is completely disrupted, and since the upgrade performed had nothing to do with the email system folks are baffled. Send in the Big Bang Theory squad? Pull together a scrum of sys admins?

Now wouldn’t that be a thrilling movie? Right, not so much…but I’m sure you all can create your own of equal vigor.

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And How Are You Going to Pay For It?

Posted on June 19, 2015 by jimcoleman3rd

During the course of not buying a new home, we went of course through the whole experience of figuring out how to pay for it.

So, first question: do you have $35,000 to $50,000 lying around in the bank? Yes? Then you’re good to go on a 10% mortgage for a home in the $350,000 – $500,000 range where most of the nice homes in Tucson go (you can spend a lot or a lot less, but just sayin’). Want a conforming loan with 20% down, then double that.

Ok, so you don’t have that kind of change just sitting there in your rainy day fund. What’s next? Assuming you already own, a home equity loan would be in order to come up with the down payment. Most places do equity loans to a LTV of 80% on current value. So to come up with $35,000 you’d need a home worth $35,000 more than that 80%, or, as an example, for a home assessed at $450,000, you’d need to owe no more than $325,000 to be able to get a $35,000 home equity loan. Some credit unions do 85% LTV, so the numbers would then be owing no more than $347,500 on that $450,000 home to get to $35,000.

What’s next? Have a rich uncle give you the cash. Of course, if you need $35,000 then that rich uncle would owe taxes on the $20,000 above the piece that is tax-free ($15,000). You could offer to pay him back all of it, including the tax part when you sell your home.

Next?  You could put your own home on the market, sell it, then determine what you then have on hand to buy a new home for yourself. Of course, you then have to try to coordinate a sell and a buy — pretty difficult, and almost no one with take a sale as a contingency for a buy — or sell, move in to temporary quarters, moving all your stuff into other temporary quarters, then buy, then move again. I’m sure you can understand why my wife absolutely would not go that route.

Next? Assuming you have enough in your 401(k) to cover the down, you could take it out of there, and assume the tax hit (ouch!).

Next? Get one (or more, there are after all two of you) signature loans. These are unsecured, run about 7% adjustable for six years, and go up to about $50,000. Let’s assume you each get one at $35,000 for a total of $70,000 which would cover your 20% on that $350,000 home.

Now, here’s where it gets fun: you now have your signature loans and learn that you can’t use this money for a down: the folks that give you a mortgage won’t let you borrow the down payment. So, now you take the down out of your 401(k). You purchase the home. You use your signature loans to pay back your 401(k). As long as you pay it back within 60 days, there are no tax penalties. You put your home on the market, and pay back your signature loans when your house sells. Of course you need to be sure there are no pre-payment penalties on the signature loan (usually the case), but it’s a pretty slick game.

Since we didn’t buy the home, we didn’t do this, but we did figure out that this was how to make the game work. If we go ahead and remodel, we’ll probably do a combination of signature loans and withdrawals from retirement spread over a couple of years. Maybe a refinance instead, but banks pretty much don’t want to give you a loan for less than 20% down, so you’re back to the same issue as with an equity loan (or worse).

Long story short: property is illiquid, 401(k)’s are expensive if you take a lot out at once, signature loans are OK for a while (kind of like a car payment), but you can’t get a lot out of one, and what you pay in interest isn’t deductible.

And if your financial advisor tells you, you need cash in hand for rainy days or to cover cash flow, s/he’s right.

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So It Didn’t Happen

Posted on June 15, 2015 by jimcoleman3rd

The new home, that is.

Not that we didn’t find one, we did, in Oro Valley, a suburb of sorts of Tucson about 15 miles north. Very nice place, relatively new construction (2003) as opposed to our place (1971), big house on 1/2 acre with a free standing casita (guest house) with one room and a full batch. Commute only added about 5 minutes.

However — there’s always a “however”, isn’t there — however, the place had been vacated, then rented for a year, then vacated and put on the market. During that time clearly a lot of the maintenance was “deferred”. I began suspecting trouble when I noticed that the lawn in the back — that in itself was a bit of an issue as people in Tucson mostly don’t have lawns — was dying from lack of water. One inspection later, it looked like we had at least $6,000 in remedial work plus three AC units nearing EOL (in the Tucson heat, 13-15 years is about it). Replacement cost: $20,000. And then there was the work that we wanted to do — fix bathroom shower, redo flooring — that would have been another $18,000. So about $45K above our offer and our offer was 5K above where we wanted to me.

Our agent thought we might ask for the remediation to be done, but didn’t think we could ask that anything be done about the AC units as they were in working shape. “You’ll have insurance”, she said. I pointed out that it was kind of like buying a used car with dicey tires. You wouldn’t wait for the tires to blow out to replace them, even if they “worked”. Ditto AC units that go in the middle of summer (it’s scheduled to be 109° on Thursday) when everyone else’s AC is on the fritz and the HVAC guys are backed up a couple of weeks. That means moving into a motel until it’s fixed.

So we walked.

Now what? Well, we are looking now at that remodel. We have a good contractor, but doing what we would need to do here is not going to be cheap: new addition (16 x 22), new bath, remodel of another bath that going to need to be torn apart to run the sewer from there to the new bath, new flooring, tear down of old car port for remodel, creation of new car port on opposite side of the house to replace old car port. Yikes!

The contractor is bringing in the guy who draws up his plans, elevations, and such. We’ll have that done first, and go from there (the HOA needs to approve the redesign in any case). And then there’s figuring out the money. My only piece of advice at this point is that if your assets are largely illiquid (home equity, IRA’s and the like), develop a plan to develop liquidity before you start (maybe even a couple of years before)…

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What? It’s May Now?

Posted on May 20, 2015 by jimcoleman3rd

This was supposed to be the year when I did more of this, not less … more of blogging that is, not less.

It hasn’t happened that way. I’ve been occupied with Other Things, mostly personal. So while most of my posts are only marginally personal, this one will catch you up on the things that are occupying me now.

In December, I started a period of about 8 weeks when I experienced serious falls four times. For a guy in a leg brace, if the brace fails and the knee joint unlocks, especially when the wearer is in motion, the outcome can be of consequence.

First time, outside, going to the grill to finish off dinner. Failure of knee lock, pitched head forward, didn’t hurt anything but fell hard. In a new brace (that’s another story).

Second time, inside, coming in from the grill (not the same day). Another knee joint failure, this time pitching forward with head hitting kitchen floor hard enough to rebound, i.e., head hits floor, bounces up, and then hits the floor again — and I thought this was something I only saw in sports. Pretty shaken, but, again, no visible damage. Still, concussion possibility? Also in new brace.

Third time, Christmas Day, in the evening, moving from the living room to carry a glass into the kitchen on retiring, another knee failure, but this time fall with glass in hand. Fall caused glass to break, and me to sustain 5 cuts on my left hand, one serious enough to justify a trip to the ER. Several hours, and several stitches later, my wife and I made it home about 3:30 in the morning.

Fourth time, a few weeks later, post stitch removal, and on receiving an improved version of the new brace — did I mention that after each fall in the new brace, a visit to my ortho guy to try to make the brace function better? — this time, less than 2 hours after the brace adjustment, one more fall with glass in hand. This time glass does not break, but left ring finger dislocates. Remember Zero Mostel in The Producers in court bandaged up with a finger in an impossible direction? Pretty much the same. So having watched a doctor relocate a my dislocated little toe several years before, I knew the drill, yanked on the finger and relocated it. Visit to the doctor the next day to confirm no other damage, except a badly swollen finger.

So, what’s the outcome? Well, first to decide I’m not walking around with a glass in my left hand (braced side). Second, to decide that maybe I should be considering using my wheelchair in doors at home when not doing stuff you can’t do in a wheelchair. Third, to have a look at exactly how accessible my current home is. Outcome: it isn’t very.

Not only not very accessible, but that many of the doors, and especially the hallway and door into the master bedroom, are the standard 32″ wide, and a handicapped accessible entrance should be 36″. Now, you can, depending, widen a normal American 32″ doorway to 36″ for about $800 a door, if you’re not buying an expensive door. However, back to that master bedroom and hallway, to fix that would mean widening the hallway, moving a wall, removing / blowing out a closet, and probably redoing a bathroom as part of the whole process, about a $20K proposition.

How about a remodel then? Doing it another way? Creating a new wing with doors that are right, an accessible bathroom with plenty of wheelchair space? Attractive, but a $60K (maybe more) outlay as not only would I have to expand the expansion would eliminate a covered carport which would need to be replace on the other side of the house.

So a new house hunt began …

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You Know Something’s Changed

Posted on January 31, 2015 by jimcoleman3rd

You know  something’s changed when the “I’ve falled down and can’t  get up” ad is no longer funny.

You know something’s changed when you’re happier with your hearing  aids  out than  in.

You know something’s changed when keep moving your furniture because you can’t move your life.

You know something’s changed when you’ve heard of the Super Bowl Half-Time entertainment act, but don’t care.

You know something’s changed when you’ve heard of — or are taking — all of the drugs that are advertised during the evening news.

You know something’s changed when the battles you fought in the 60’s and 70’s  continue to be refought, but with different results.

You know nothing’s changed when the new Governor of Arizona supports education by cutting state funding of universities by 10% and community colleges by 50%.

You know nothing’s changed when  American Sniper is a big hit, and even criticism of it is anti-American.

You  know something changed when you don’t know why you know  something’s changed.

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For 2015 – More or Less

Posted on January 1, 2015 by jimcoleman3rd
  • More Petit Sirah, less Hearty Burgundy
  • More lamb, less chicken
  • More Peet’s, less Starbucks
  • More Chinese, less Mexican (now, if there were only a good Chinese restaurant in Tucson)
  • More Hegel, less Schopenauer
  • More weight-driven clocks, less digital timepieces
  • More Massachusetts, less Arizona
  • More Warren, less Ducey
  • More roses, less guns
  • More Tiger Woods, less Rory McIlroy (charming and talented though he may be)
  • More Stanford, more Oregon, less Alabama, much less Florida State
  • More Andrew Luck, less, much less Jameis Winston
  • More soccer, less football
  • More Man City, less Man United
  • Morer Man United, less Arsenal
  • More Late Show, less Fox News
  • More New York  Times, less just about anything  else (is the Arizonna Star anything but a vehicle for advertising?)
  • More Web content, less advertising (is the Web anything but a vehicle for ads and porn?)
  • More Obama, less McCain
  • More political reality, less Tea Party
  • More Europe, less United States
  • More Gaga, less Swift (can she sing at all?)
  • More opera, less rap
  • More bebop, less country
  • More Cloud, less localhost
  • More strategic, less tactical
  • More Airbnb, less Uber
  • More social media, no Twitter (can anyone tell me why I should Tweet?)
  • More family, less family (you know what I mean)
  • More good food out, just more good food out (in, I’ve got covered, and Tucson is good town for food)
  • More Santa Fe, just more Santa Fe
  • More 2015, less 2014
  • And More to you all in  2015
Posted in An Appreciation, Arizona, Massachusetts | Leave a comment

Endings

Posted on December 31, 2014 by jimcoleman3rd

So today 2014 ends. For all of us, at a time particular to us, subjectively, and potentially outside the realm of where a GPS may locate us.

The end of the year is automatic, arbitrary, and absolute. Automatic in that it always happens, arbitrary in that ends of years are bound to calendars, and calendars are arbitrary, even if, in the cases, say, of lunar calendars, they can be associated with physical events. It is absolute in the sense that it occurs, and has no subjective boundaries, years end whether I wish them to or not.

Other types of endings are different, more subjective and open to interpretation and speculation. Objectively, perhaps, books end when we reach the last page, and have read the last word. Subjectively, however, for all of us a book stops when we stop reading it. Movies are similar, but more ambiguous of late. Gone is the day of the credits at the start and the large The End at the end. Many movies continue into the trailer, indeed, we may not even see the name of the film until after the action has ended, and today’s movies trailers can be very long indeed. Here too the movie ends, for us, when we get up and walk out, whether we’ve watched it to the bitter in or have exited in media res.

Endings to life events, short of death, can be even more complex. Relationships move often in and out of being “present”. We fall in and out of love. We marry, we divorce. We stay in the same place, we move. We cast off personae as a snake sheds it skin, we hunker down in the warmth of the familiar and cozy. Our relationships are endlessly satisfying, endlessly hopeless, and inescapable.

We work, but work changes and e- or devolves. Within work itself, endings can be a thing difficult to achieve. Are we not all familiar with the project that is never finished, the vampire task that never dies and yet continues to drain our figurative life’s blood year over year, the co-worker/manager that cannot bring any initiative to a conclusion but keeps “transforming” it so that it morphs anew into the next new Unfinished thing.

Medical events similarly are acute or chronic, but it is more likely that the acute will become chronic that the inverse, and the chronic may have an evolution, and potentially a fatal path. Is the end of pain, possession of hearty T-cells, regained strength in an injured limb health? Cancer survival is benchmarked at five years, but what is the benchmark for ALS, for Parkinson’s, for life itself?

So as this year ends, reflect on the endings that you have experienced this year, and their quality. Also on whether a choice to create an ending would lead to a new — and better? — beginning in the coming year. And for those of you who are eager to end and begin ab ovo remember this: significant changes, whether endings or beginnings, require time, usually a year — ah, yes, there it is again, that absolute time frame — to become ingrained and integrated with the personal self.

Good wishes on necessary endings and good beginnings to all as 2014 ends.

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Starting Up

Posted on September 4, 2014 by jimcoleman3rd

The German polymath, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, famously stated, “Aller Anfang is schwer”, literally “Every beginning is difficult”, which I would, with much more verbosity, translate as “Each new beginning is fraught with difficulties”.

Why is starting up/doing new so difficult? Certainly as a child, everything may not be difficult, but it is at once new, and so children, if unafraid, are most willing to try the new thing — vocalizing, verbalizing, then talking, and ambulation (both on the floor, and then upright) — then improving and mastering until the thing is common and no longer new.

Once we are older, the new proves more interesting/difficult. There are in essence two types of new/change, those that we explicitly undertake — new beginnings, new relationships chosen/sought out, fundamental changes to the how and what of us, and then the new that is thrust on us than chosen freely. Each has its set of difficulties and challenges.

Looking at that which is thrust upon us first and using myself as an example: in my work life of more than 37 years every job I have held has been with a company/business/insitution that has reorganized itself  — and therefore me and what I do — within 18 months of my joining the company. Bosses I signed up to work for now working elsewhere, activities I signed up to do now no longer being done or no longer being done by me, businesses changing their core raison d’etre and thereby the work I do. Sometimes with a better boss, but mostly not.

By my estimation, I have had six different career paths (as we now say) since I started working, and each has been in part as a response to those changing situations. Not so much making lemonade from lemons, as a personal response to the fruit offered, a choice to embrace or reject, so that what is might be initially negative can become at least a pivot point into the next thing.

In point of fact, what troubles us about the new –whether it is thrust on us or freely chosen or sought out — is that we, as individuals or institutions, always enter into the new with insufficient knowledge. Organizations seek to renew themselves for reasons — from economic challenges, an inability to perform efficiently, stagnation, among many of the possible reasons — but these reasons all come with knowledge insufficient to promise success or even a good outcome.

Similarly, individuals, even if we do the new as an experiment, cannot know with certainty the outcome or whether our actions bring fruit or famine.

With all of that, the new, new thing, new activity, new job, new relationship, brings with it at least the possibility of openness and possibility, a starting again, the feeling that “I am done with that, now I can start again”. This, even with insufficient knowledge or a knowing of the environment that opens before us, can be liberating if we are able to enter into it with fear or lack of security. Only then can our new beginnings be less difficult or the difficulty ours to manage.

 

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Secure the Border Update

Posted on August 7, 2014 by jimcoleman3rd

Late July Update

As the Republican Campaign for Governor heats up, as suspected, the top two Republication candidates, Christine Jones and Doug Ducey, continue to try to outdo each other in their run to the right on border security. Jones claims she going to “deploy 1,200 troops to the border, use technology to monitor who’s coming and going, finish the fence, and send Obama the bill”. So where are the troops coming from? Arizona has troops? Even if the National Guard were used, the state would foot the bill unless the Federal Government agreed to help.

Even Jones admits her plan will cost the state $270 million. Personally I’d triple that: I estimate building a secure, East Berlin like Wall would cost at least $500 million using the length of the border and per mile prices on a building project like two lanes of interstate for the length of the border. And 1,700 troops is about 1/3 of what would be needed, and that the deployment of 1,200 troops during Operation Phalanx (2010-2011) cost $11o million according to a blog posting by Stephen Lemons in the Phoenix New Times. So total on-going costs in the range of $400 million a year.

Ducey chides her for this, but has no counter plan, other than “using every resource at my commend”, including “fencing, satellites, guardsmen, more police and more prosecutors.” But without indication of what the cost would be or how he would pay for it. All this, while lowering taxes, according to his Web site, “with a goal of pushing income tax rates as close to zero as possible.”

It would be amusing if it weren’t so cynical and ultimately tragic for the state if either gets elected. But don’t count it: it’s likely that one of them will be the Republican candidate. And in Arizona, that’s more than half the battle.

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So How Old Are You? Retro Technology and Music Quiz

Posted on July 29, 2014 by jimcoleman3rd

Retro Technology and Music Quiz:

1. Which of the following have you seen?

a. Edison wax cylinder recording
b. Single-sided disc recording
c. 78 RPM recording
d. 45 RPM recording

2. Have you heard any of the above recording types playing on an appropriate device? If so, which?

3. Which of the following have you seen?

a. Glass-plate negative
b. Daguerreotype
c. Stereoscope image pairs
d. 120 Film/120 Film camera

4. Did You Ever Own

a. A Brownie camera?
b. A cap gun?
c. A rotary phone?
d. A Walkman?
e. A cassette player?

5. Did you ever listen to (bonus points if in person):

a. The Platters
b. Dinah Washington
c. John Lee Hooker
d. Art Tatum
e. Risë Stevens

6. Which floppy disks do you remember?

a. IBM 8 in.
b. DEC 8 in.
c. 5 1/4 in.
d. HP 3 and 3 1/2

7. Did you ever lust for a Selectric Typewriter?

8. What was your first word processing program/system? Does it still exist?

9. Which of the following word processing systems have you used?

a. Wang
b. WordPerfect
c. ed/emacs
d. IBM 3730

10. Have you ever been to an opera? If yes, by

a. Mozart
b. Anton Weber
c. Richard Wagner
d. Alban Berg
e. John Adams

11. (Bonus question, not to be scored) How old are you feeling now?

Scoring: Use your own scoring model. Mine is one point of each positive answer. Any total over 30 means that you’re really old (like me) or really cool (maybe like me since I created the questionnaire, it’s a matter of taste). And you’re certainly NOT under 30, maybe not ever under 40 … or 50.

 

 

 

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